One number, six honest factors
Tennis has a lot of noise: rankings that lag reality, recent results against wildly different opponents, hype, and prices that move for no obvious reason. The Signal exists to cut through that. For every ATP and WTA singles match, beTenis scores six independent factors, weighs them, and combines them into a single 0–14 rating. The higher the number, the stronger and more agreed-upon the case for one player.
Crucially, each factor is measured the same way for every match. That consistency is the whole point — it means a Signal of 11 on a Tuesday in Metz means the same thing as an 11 at a Grand Slam.
Six factors → weighted → one 0–14 Signal → the player with the edge becomes the Pick. Higher Signal = stronger, more consistent case. It never claims certainty.
The six factors
1Recent form
How a player has actually been playing lately — but weighted by who they beat. Three wins over top-20 players says far more than three over qualifiers. Form captures momentum, confidence and fitness that a ranking, updated slowly over a rolling year, simply can't.
2Surface fit
Clay, hard and grass are almost different sports. A player's record and level on this surface specifically often matters more than their overall standing. A big server can be a monster on grass and ordinary on clay; a grinder is the reverse. Surface fit measures how well each player's game travels to the court they're about to play on. More on surfaces →
3Quality (Elo)
Underlying strength, measured with an Elo-style rating rather than the official ranking. Elo updates after every match based on the result and the opponent's strength, so it reacts faster and reflects true level better than points that partly reward scheduling. It's the closest thing to an honest "who's actually better right now".
4Style matchup
Some games beat other games regardless of ranking. A heavy left-handed forehand into a one-handed backhand, a returner who neutralises a big serve, a flat hitter who rushes a grinder — style matchups explain a lot of "upsets" that weren't really upsets. This factor reads how the two players' games are likely to interact.
5Common opponents
If A and B haven't played much, we compare them indirectly through the opponents they've both faced. If A handled the same players that troubled B, that's real evidence even without a head-to-head. It's a smarter comparison than raw records, because it controls for who each player has actually been up against.
6Market movement
The odds carry information. When a price shortens sharply, money and opinion are agreeing on something. We don't blindly follow the market — but a strong model read that the market also backs is a firmer signal than one it's drifting against. More on reading odds →
From factors to the Pick
Each factor awards points toward one player or the other. Add them up, and one side almost always comes out ahead — that side becomes the Pick, and the winner's point total is the Signal. In the app you can open any match and see the full breakdown: which factors leaned which way and by how much, so the number is never a black box.
We deliberately don't publish the exact weights — that's the part worth protecting — but we do show you every input, so you can agree or disagree with the read on its merits.
Reading the number
A rough guide to what a Signal means:
- 10–14 — a strong, multi-factor case. Several factors agree on the same player.
- 6–9 — a real lean, but with meaningful pushback from at least one factor.
- 0–5 — close to a coin flip. The factors cancel out, or the match is genuinely unpredictable.
A high Signal isn't a promise the favourite wins — it's a statement that the case is strong and consistent. Tennis being tennis, the underdog still wins plenty. That's not a flaw in the read; it's the sport.
It is not a guaranteed prediction, tip, or advice to place any bet. It's a structured, repeatable read of a match. Outcomes are uncertain, variance is real, and beTenis is for users aged 18 and over. Use it as one input, never the only one.
See the Signal on today's matches
Every ATP & WTA match, rated and broken down — free on Android.
Get beTenisbeTenis provides tennis information and analytics only. It does not take bets or handle money, and nothing here is financial or betting advice. Intended for users 18+. Odds and outcomes are uncertain — please play responsibly.